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The most important events of the past week

By Samir Al Khoury,

United States of America

• The core retail sales index (excluding car sales) rose on a monthly basis, recording a growth of 1.1%, which exceeded expectations (0.5%) and the previous reading (0.6%). The retail sales index also rose on a monthly basis, recording a growth of 0.7%, which exceeded expectations (0.4%) and the previous reading (0.9%).

• The Empire State Manufacturing Index in New York State recorded a contraction of 14.30 points, which is lower than expected (-5.20) but higher than the previous reading (-20.90).

• The building permits index declined, recording 1.458M, which is lower than expectations (1.514M) and the previous reading (1.523M).

• The industrial production index recorded 0.4% on a monthly basis, a percentage that was in line with expectations and the previous reading.

• US crude oil inventories recorded 2.735 million barrels, which exceeded expectations (1.600M) but lower than the previous reading (5.841M).

• The initial jobless claims index reached 212K, which is lower than expectations (215K) but consistent with the previous reading.

• The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index rose by 15.5 points, which exceeded expectations (1.5) and the previous reading (3.2).

• The existing home sales index declined, recording 4.19 million, which is lower than expectations (4.20M) and the previous reading (4.38M).

Eurozone

• The main consumer price index on an annual basis recorded 2.4%, which was in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading (2.6%). The core consumer price index (which excludes food and energy) recorded 2.9% on an annual basis, which is in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading (3.1%).

United Kingdom

• The headline consumer price index recorded on an annual basis 3.2%, which was higher than expectations (3.1%) but lower than the previous reading (3.4%). The core consumer price index (which excludes food and energy) recorded on an annual basis 4.2%, which was higher than expectations (4.1%) but lower than the previous reading (4.5%).

• The income rate, including bonuses, was 5.6%, which exceeded expectations (5.5%), but was in line with the previous reading.

• The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, which exceeded expectations (4.0%) and the previous reading (3.9%).

China

• The GDP index rose on an annual basis for the first quarter, recording a growth of 5.3%, which exceeded expectations (4.8%) and the previous reading (5.3%).

• The fixed assets investment index rose by 4.5%, which exceeded expectations (4.0%) and the previous reading (4.2%).

• The industrial production index decreased on an annual basis, recording 4.5%, which is lower than expectations (6.0%) and the previous reading (7.0%).

• The retail sales index decreased on an annual basis, recording 3.1%, which is lower than expectations (5.1%) and the previous reading (5.5%).

• The unemployment rate was 5.2%, which is in line with expectations but lower than the previous reading (5.3%).

Japan

• The export index declined on an annual basis, recording 7.3%, which is a lower percentage than the previous reading (7.8%).

• The import index declined on an annual basis, recording a contraction of 4.9%, which is a lower percentage than the previous reading (0.5%).

• The core CPI (which excludes food) decreased year-on-year by 2.6%, which is lower than expectations (2.7%) and the previous reading (2.8%).

The most important events of this week

This week, financial markets are eagerly awaiting the release of several key economic indicators:

• Australia’s industrial and services PMIs are released today, in addition to the key lending rate by the People’s Bank of China.

• On Tuesday, the markets are awaiting the manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indices in Japan, Eurozone, Britain, and the United States of America.

• On Wednesday, the markets are awaiting the consumer price index in Australia, durable goods orders in the United States of America, retail sales in Canada, and the US crude oil inventories index.

• Regarding Thursday, markets are awaiting GDP indicators, initial jobless claims, and pending home sales in the United States of America.

• Finally, on Friday, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision and the core personal consumption expenditures price indices and the Michigan Consumer Confidence indices in the United States of America will be released.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD: 

If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.0647, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.0604, 1.0558, and 1.0515. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.0693 1.0736, and 1.0782.

GBP/USD: 

If the pound against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.2407, it has the potential to test the support levels of 1.2317, 1.2270, and 1.2180. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.2454, 1.2545, and 1.2592.

USD/JPY: 

If the pivot point of 154.10 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 153.43, 152.28, and 151.60. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 155.26, 155.93, and 157.09.

GOLD: 

If the pivot point of 2393 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 2353, 2300, and 2261. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 2446, 2486, and 2539.

BRENT CRUDE OIL:

If the pivot point of 88.08 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 85.32, 83.34 and 80.58. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 90.06, 92.82, and 94.80.

US30:

If the pivot point of 38,102 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 37,568, 36,928 and 36,394. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 38,742, 39,726, and 39,916.

Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

Taurex is the trading name of Zenfinex Global Limited, Stochastic Africa SL Ltd, Zenfinex Global LLC, and Zenfinex Limited.

Zenfinex Global Limited is registered in the Republic of Seychelles with registration number: 8428731-1 and is regulated by the Financial Services Authority of Seychelles (license number SD092). Its registered office address is F20, 1st Floor, Eden Plaza, Eden Island, Seychelles.

Stochastic Africa (SL) Limited is a company registered in Sierra Leone with Company Number: SL270319STOCH05271 and is licensed by the Bank of Sierra Leone under license number BSL/SAL/2023 and with the registered office at 148D Wilkinson Road, Freetown, Sierra Leone.

Zenfinex Global LLC is a company registered with the Financial Services Authority in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines under registered number 138 LLC 2019. Its registered office is Hinds Building, Kingstown, Saint Vincent, and the Grenadines.

Zenfinex Limited is a company registered in England and Wales under registered number: 11077380. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under firm reference number 816055. Its registered office is 4th Floor, 4 Eastcheap, London, EC3M 1AE, United Kingdom.

*All trading involves risk.

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