Key Points
1. Oil has recovered sharply from Friday’s NFP driven drop to $87.00, now trading at $91.075 and testing resistance just below the $91.90 to $92.00 area. A pullback into the $90.50 to $90.80 zone offers a possible entry for continuation toward that resistance and beyond.
2. Gold is recovering from its own post NFP low near $4,380, now at $4,437.90 and pressing into the $4,450 weak high. A retracement into the $4,410 to $4,420 zone offers a cleaner entry than chasing price directly into resistance.
3. Bitcoin tells the opposite story, rolling over from the 80,600 strong high set over the weekend into a clean bearish sequence, now trading at 78,804 and testing a weak low near 78,600 to 78,700. A retracement into the 79,400 to 79,600 zone offers a short entry for continuation, since a weak low carries a higher probability of breaking than holding.
Trade 1: Oil Long from Demand
| Pair | Direction | Entry Zone | Target 1 | Target 2 | Invalidation |
| USOIL | Long | $90.50 to $90.80 | $91.90 | $92.50 | Below $89.50 |
Chart: WTI Crude Oil (USOIL), H1 timeframe (TradingView, SMC)
The H1 chart shows just how sharply sentiment swung this week. Oil fell hard to a weak low near $87.00 after Friday’s blowout jobs report drove broad dollar strength, before a bullish change of character near $88.50 marked the low. A clean sequence of breaks of structure has carried price back through $89.50, $90.00 and beyond, tagging a high near $91.70 on Monday before a brief pullback into the $89.00 demand zone and a fresh push to the current level of $91.075.
The trade looks for a retracement into the $90.50 to $90.80 zone, the most recent shallow area of demand before the latest push higher. This is a cleaner entry than chasing price directly into the $91.90 to $92.00 resistance that has already capped two rallies this week. Target 1 sits at $91.90, with Target 2 at $92.50 for a confirmed break above that resistance. Invalidation sits below $89.50, beneath the deeper demand zone that underpins the entire recovery from Friday’s low.
Middle East tensions reescalating overnight are the fundamental tailwind behind this move, rebuilding the supply risk premium that briefly unwound after Friday’s sell off. With Thursday’s US PPI and Friday’s US CPI both landing this week, oil’s own contribution to the inflation picture adds another layer of volatility risk around any entry.
Trade 2: Gold Long into the Weak High
| Pair | Direction | Entry Zone | Target 1 | Target 2 | Invalidation |
| XAU/USD | Long | $4,410 to $4,420 | $4,450 | $4,480 | Below $4,380 |
Chart: XAU/USD, 15 minute timeframe (TradingView, SMC)
Gold’s chart tells a similar story to oil. Friday’s payrolls beat triggered a sharp change of character and a heavy sell off down to a strong low near $4,380, wiping out a chunk of the prior week’s gains in a single session. Since then, a steady sequence of breaks of structure has carried price back through $4,400 and $4,420, with the recovery now testing the $4,450 weak high at a current price of $4,437.90.
The trade looks for a pullback into the $4,410 to $4,420 zone, the level where the most recent leg higher found its footing. This offers a more favourable entry than buying directly into resistance. Target 1 is $4,450, the weak high itself, with Target 2 at $4,480 for a confirmed break higher. Invalidation sits below $4,380, the strong low that underpins the entire recovery structure.
The fundamental backdrop is a genuine tug of war. Dollar strength from Friday’s jobs beat has capped gold’s recovery so far, but this week’s PPI and CPI releases, both landing before the 16 September FOMC, could easily tip the balance in either direction depending on whether inflation surprises to the upside or the downside.
Trade 3: Bitcoin Short from Supply
| Pair | Direction | Entry Zone | Target 1 | Target 2 | Invalidation |
| BTC/USD | Short | 79,400 to 79,600 | 78,600 | 78,000 | Above 80,000 |
Chart: BTC/USD, 15 minute timeframe (TradingView, SMC)
Bitcoin is the outlier on this week’s board, and the chart makes clear why. After tagging a strong high near 80,600 over the weekend, a bearish change of character kicked off a clean sequence of breaks of structure that has carried price down through a stack of supply zones at 79,800, 79,600 and 79,400, to the current level of 78,804. Price is now testing a weak low near 78,600 to 78,700, the first real support since the reversal began.
The trade looks for a retracement into the 79,400 to 79,600 zone, the most recent supply area the market broke through on the way down, for a short continuation entry rather than fighting the trend by buying the dip. A weak low, unlike a strong low, carries a lower probability of holding on a retest, which favours positioning with the bearish structure rather than against it. Target 1 is 78,600, with Target 2 at 78,000 for a confirmed break of that support. Invalidation sits above 80,000, a level that would suggest buyers have reclaimed control of the structure.
Bitcoin’s elevated correlation with broader risk sentiment means this setup is highly sensitive to the same dollar strength that has weighed on gold and, briefly, oil since Friday. A hot PPI or CPI print this week would likely reinforce dollar strength and add further pressure to this setup, while a soft print could see the bearish structure unwind quickly.
Key Events This Week
Thursday 10 September: US PPI (12:30 UTC, m/m forecast 0.4% from 0.0%, Core PPI m/m forecast 0.3% from 0.2%) | ECB Rate Decision (12:15 UTC, forecast 2.40% to 2.65%)
Friday 11 September: US CPI (12:30 UTC, m/m forecast 0.4% from 0.1%, y/y forecast 3.4%; Core CPI y/y forecast 2.4% from 2.5%), the final major inflation reading before the Fed’s 16 September decision.
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