After crude oil prices reached $72.80 last week — their highest level since June 23, 2025 — a notable decline followed, with prices falling to $68.00 yesterday, marking a 7% drop. Since the beginning of the year, oil prices have decreased by approximately 8%.
The main negative factors currently weighing on oil prices include:
- Persistent Trade Tensions: The Trump administration has imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on most countries, set to take effect on August 7, 2025. Major affected economies include India (25%), Canada (35%), and Switzerland (39%). The uncertainty surrounding global trade relations has fueled concerns over future demand.
- OPEC+ Ending Voluntary Production Cuts: The OPEC+ alliance has decided to phase out its voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, increasing production by around 547,000 barrels per day starting in September.
- Weak Economic Data from Major Oil Importers: Recent data from key global oil consumers — notably China and the United States — has been underwhelming, further pressuring global oil demand.
A research note from Goldman Sachs maintained its forecast for Brent crude at $64 per barrel for Q4 this year, with a potential drop to $56 next year. The bank noted that upside risks remain due to geopolitical pressures on Russia and Iran, while downside risks stem from U.S. tariffs and weak global data.
From a technical perspective, oil prices are currently trading below the 200-day, 50-day, and 20-day moving averages — indicating a continued bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 47, reflecting negative momentum. Additionally, a bearish crossover is seen between the MACD line (blue) and the signal line (orange), reinforcing the continuation of downward momentum in crude oil prices.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
