Key Points
- The US/Iran ceasefire collapsed over the weekend. Trump announced a naval blockade of all Iranian ports, effective Monday morning. Oil gapped up 8% to $104 per barrel.
- Gold opened at $4,723 as safe-haven demand returned. Managed money positioning sits at the 0th percentile of the 52 week range, meaning large traders are historically underweight.
- US PPI on Tuesday is the week’s key data release. BoE Governor Bailey speaks three times between Tuesday and Wednesday. Big bank earnings kick off with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup.
The Macro Picture
Last week’s ceasefire rally is already ancient history. The US/Iran truce announced on April 8 crashed oil 16% and sparked the best week for equities in almost a year. Then on Saturday, Vice President Vance confirmed talks had collapsed. Trump responded with a full naval blockade of all Iranian ports, effective Monday morning. Oil gapped up 8% to $104. Equity futures pulled back. Gold steadied at $4,723 as safe haven demand returned.
Beyond geopolitics, this is a heavyweight week. US PPI on Tuesday gives the latest read on inflation. BoE Governor Bailey speaks three times across Tuesday and Wednesday. And big bank earnings kick off with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America, alongside Netflix, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson.
Oil: Blockade Sends Prices Surging
Chart: WTI Crude Oil, H4 timeframe
WTI crude gapped from Friday’s close of $96 to above $104 at Monday’s open. On the H4 chart, the structure is ranging after last week’s aggressive selloff. Support sits at $89.84, with resistance at $95.17 near term and $106 above.
If the blockade escalates and Iranian exports are fully cut off, oil could push back toward $110 and beyond. If it brings both sides back to the table, prices could settle in the $95 to $105 range. Oil is likely the most volatile market this week.
Gold: Closing The Gap
Chart: XAU/USD, H4 timeframe
Gold opened at $4,723, holding above the key $4,644 support level. Resistance sits at $4,800, with $4,858 above that. The RSI at 49 is neutral, giving room for a move in either direction.
The standout detail is positioning. Managed money net longs have fallen to 90,032 contracts, which places them at the 0th percentile of the 52 week range. Large traders are historically underweight gold despite rising geopolitical risk. If the blockade escalates, there is significant room for positions to rebuild, which could drive prices sharply higher. A soft PPI print on Tuesday would add further support.
What to Watch This Week
Tuesday is the big one. US PPI lands first (previous core reading: 0.5% MoM). A soft print reignites rate cut hopes. BoE Governor Bailey speaks Tuesday evening and twice on Wednesday, with the pound at 1.3405 sitting just below resistance at 1.3470. Thursday brings Australian employment data (previous: 48.9K jobs, 4.3% unemployment) and UK GDP MoM (previous: 0.0%). And throughout the week, any headline from the Strait of Hormuz could move oil, gold, and equities sharply. One of the most eventful weeks of the year.
Editor note: Screenshot the Acuity calendar for April 13–17 2026. Key events: US PPI (Tue 14th), BoE Gov Bailey Speaks (Tue evening + Wed x2), AUS Employment & Unemployment (Thu 17th), UK GDP MoM (Thu 17th). Also: Big bank earnings all week (GS, JPM, C, WFC, MS, BAC, NFLX, BLK, JNJ).
