Key Points
- The S&P 500 hit a fresh all time high at 7,126, driven by blockbuster bank earnings and a brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The index is up 3.5% on the week and the RSI at 68 is approaching overbought territory.
- The US/Iran ceasefire expires on Wednesday April 22 with no deal in place. Iran reopened Hormuz on Friday, sending oil crashing 11%, then reversed and closed it again on Saturday. Oil is back at $89 and Wednesday’s outcome will likely set the direction for energy markets.
- This week brings flash PMI readings on Wednesday for the US, UK, and Eurozone. Tesla reports on Tuesday after the bell, with Boeing, IBM, Intel, and American Express also due later in the week.
The Macro Picture
The past two weeks have been a masterclass in volatility. The blockade of Iranian ports sent oil to $104. Then Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open for commercial traffic under the Lebanon ceasefire, and oil crashed 11% on Friday to around $84. Hours later, Iran reversed the decision and closed the strait again on Saturday, warning it would stay shut as long as the US blockade of Iranian ports continued. Oil has gapped back up to $89 at the Sunday open.
The ceasefire deadline arrives on Wednesday April 22 with no deal in place. The Islamabad negotiations collapsed two weeks ago over Iran’s nuclear programme, its funding of regional groups, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistani officials say they are pushing for fresh talks, but nothing has been confirmed. If the deadline passes without an agreement, the ceasefire formally ends and the situation escalates. If a deal emerges, the relief rally could be significant.
Away from geopolitics, the corporate earnings picture is encouraging. Last week’s bank results beat expectations across the board. JPMorgan posted $16.5 billion in profit (up 13% year on year), Citigroup reported $3.06 earnings per share against a $2.64 forecast, and Morgan Stanley delivered $3.43 per share versus $3.00 expected. Equities responded, with the NASDAQ up 5.1% and the DAX gaining 4% on the week. This week, the focus shifts to Tesla on Tuesday, followed by Boeing, IBM, Intel, Procter & Gamble, and American Express later in the week.
Oil: The Hormuz Whipsaw
Chart: WTI Crude Oil, H4 timeframe
Oil has been the most volatile market for weeks and that is not changing. WTI sits at $89.40 after an extraordinary Friday that saw prices crash over 11% when Iran announced Hormuz was open, followed by a reversal when Iran shut it again on Saturday.
On the H4 chart, the structure is a clear downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. The most recent swing high sits at $91.78, which now acts as near term resistance. Support comes in at $84.80, which is where the Friday selloff found a floor. The RSI at 45 is neutral. The big picture is simple: if the ceasefire holds or a deal is struck on Tuesday, oil likely retests the $84 level and potentially lower. If the deadline passes with no agreement and the conflict escalates, oil could surge back above $95 and toward $100.
S&P 500: All Time Highs on Earnings Strength
Chart: S&P 500, H4 timeframe
The S&P 500 closed at 7,126 on Friday, marking a fresh all time high. The index has now rallied 3.5% over the past week alone, driven almost entirely by the strength of bank earnings and the brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. On the H4 chart, the structure is a clean uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Support sits at 6,736 on the most recent swing low, with 6,539 below that. The only resistance on the chart is the 7,158 swing high, which is now the level to watch for continuation. The RSI at 68 is approaching overbought territory, which suggests the rally could slow down or pull back before the next leg higher.
The question for this week is whether the earnings momentum can carry the index higher even if the ceasefire collapses on Wednesday. Last week showed that strong corporate results can offset geopolitical risk, at least in the short term. Tesla reports on Tuesday after the bell, and the reaction to that will set the tone for the rest of the week. Boeing, IBM, Intel, Procter & Gamble, and American Express follow later in the week. If earnings continue to beat, the S&P could push through 7,158 and into uncharted territory. If the ceasefire falls apart and oil surges back above $100, expect a pullback toward the 6,900 to 7,000 area.
What to Watch This Week
Tuesday is the most important day. The US/Iran ceasefire deadline expires, and any headline from that will move oil, gold, and equities immediately. Tesla also reports after the bell on Tuesday, with analysts expecting $0.33 adjusted earnings per share.
Wednesday brings flash PMI data for the UK, Eurozone, and US. These readings are the first look at how business activity is holding up in April, which has been dominated by the Hormuz crisis and oil volatility. The previous US manufacturing PMI was 52.3 and services was 54.4. Any drop below 50 signals contraction and would raise concerns about the economic impact of the conflict.
Thursday delivers US weekly jobless claims (forecast 210K, previous 207K) and more earnings from Boeing, IBM, and Intel. Friday rounds out the week with the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading (previous 47.6). Throughout it all, Strait of Hormuz headlines remain the wildcard that could override everything on the economic calendar.
Editor note: Screenshot the Acuity calendar for April 20–25 2026. Key events: US/Iran ceasefire deadline (Wed 22nd), Tesla earnings (Wed 22nd after bell), Flash PMIs UK/EU/US (Thu 23rd), US Jobless Claims (Fri 24th), Boeing/IBM/Intel earnings (Fri), UoM Consumer Sentiment revised (Sat 25th).
