Crude oil prices rose to USD 75.58 per barrel yesterday, marking their highest level since August 1, 2025. Prices are up around 13% from the beginning of the year to date, after recording a negative performance last year with a decline of nearly 19%. Crude oil is currently trading near the USD 69 per barrel level.
The main driver behind this notable rise is, naturally, the geopolitical escalation between the United States and Iran, amid cautious anticipation of a potential US strike inside Iran. This comes following statements by US President Donald Trump, who indicated two possible outcomes: either reaching an agreement or facing a much worse confrontation. In addition, concerns have emerged over a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for the global energy market, through which roughly 20% of global oil demand and more than a quarter of seaborne oil trade pass. These risks have added a significant geopolitical risk premium to oil prices.
At the same time, the United States is experiencing snowstorms and freezing weather conditions, which are affecting parts of oil supply. In this context, US crude oil inventories declined by 2.295 million barrels over the past week, a larger draw than expected (-0.200 million barrels) and a sharp reversal from the previous reading, which showed a build of 3.602 million barrels.
On the other hand, a key factor continues to weigh negatively on crude oil prices, namely the abundant oil supply from outside OPEC+, particularly from the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.
From a technical perspective, a bullish crossover, commonly referred to as a “golden cross,” has formed between the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, signaling a potential continuation of the upward trend in crude oil prices. In addition, prices have broken above the 200-day moving average. As for momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index stands at 64, indicating positive momentum, while the MACD is trading above its signal line, suggesting that bullish momentum remains intact for this asset.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
