Key Points
- The week is built around Tuesday’s US midterm elections, Thursday’s Bank of England decision, where a hike to 4.00 percent is close to fully priced, and Friday’s October payrolls, with the RBA on Tuesday, euro area flash inflation on Wednesday and Apple and AMD earnings also in focus. A Fed hike in December is priced at about 76 to 87 percent depending on the source, which makes the jobs data decisive.
- Gold is trading at 3,916 after a 3.6 percent drop on Friday to a low near 3,867, its weakest level since July, and sits below the 4,025 to 4,083 supply zone and both moving averages as hike bets and firm oil keep it under pressure.
- GBP/USD is at 1.3400 after bouncing from the 1.3275 to 1.3297 demand zone on Wednesday to a high near 1.3433 on Friday, with a 25 basis point Bank of England hike to 4.00 percent about 97 percent priced for Thursday.
Last Week in Review
AI costs, not the Fed, ended the week. Alphabet fell 12.6 percent after negative free cash flow and weak search revenue, its worst day as a public company, Intel dropped 28.6 percent on weak guidance and Amazon’s trailing free cash flow turned negative, which sent the Nasdaq 100 down 3.46 percent on Friday alone to 28,385. The S&P 500 closed at 7,580.07, down 0.6 percent on the week, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.0 percent.
The Fed held at 3.75 to 4.00 percent on Wednesday in a 10 to 2 vote, with Cook and Hammack dissenting in favour of a hike, and Warsh said he was unwilling and unable to call financial conditions tight. Third quarter GDP grew 3.4 percent and September PCE inflation was 3.6 percent year on year, and Dallas Fed President Logan said Friday that at least two more quarter point hikes were needed. CME FedWatch put December hike odds near 87 percent after the decision.
December gold futures settled at 3,885.70, down about 3 percent on the week, while silver fell 5.9 percent on Friday to about 49.08 and December WTI settled at 104.12 on Middle East supply risks. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.93 percent, the Dollar Index closed at 101.96 and EUR/USD ended near 1.1164, close to its weakest since May 2025.
Gold: Breaks Below 3,977 and Hits a Three-Month Low
Chart: Gold (XAU/USD), 4H timeframe (TradingView, SMC)
Gold (XAU/USD) 4H chart, 25 August to 2 November 2026: price fell from a high near 4,400 on 19 September through a series of lower highs, broke below the 3,977 low on 30 October to a new low near 3,867, and is trading at 3,916.04 beneath the 4,025 to 4,083 supply zone.
The 4H chart shows gold in a persistent downtrend since the 19 September high near 4,400, with every rally capped by a supply zone at 4,335 to 4,370, 4,290 to 4,315, 4,155 to 4,226 and now 4,025 to 4,083. Price sits below both moving averages, the faster near 3,950 and the slower near 4,003, and the pattern since October has been a step down, a bounce into the averages and a new low.
Last week followed the same script. Gold bounced from the 3,977 low on 26 October into a high near 4,082 on Wednesday, was rejected at the 4,025 to 4,083 supply zone, then broke the 3,977 low on Friday in a heavy sell-off to a low near 3,867, about 12 percent below the September high. It has bounced to 3,916.04 since, and sources tie the slide to December hike bets, firm oil and Logan’s call for more hikes, even as Treasury yields fell.
Above, a recovery first meets the faster average near 3,950, the broken 3,977 low and the slower average near 4,003, before the 4,025 to 4,083 supply zone, and a close above 4,083 would be the first real sign the selling is stalling. Below, the 3,867 low is the floor with no marked demand on the chart beneath it, and Friday’s payrolls and Wednesday’s ISM services are the likeliest catalysts for a hike repricing.
GBP/USD: Holding Above Its Averages Into a Bank of England Hike
Chart: GBP/USD, 4H timeframe (TradingView, SMC)
GBP/USD 4H chart, 26 August to 2 November 2026: price fell to a low near 1.3138 on 14 October, rallied to a high near 1.3433 on 30 October after a bounce from the 1.3275 to 1.3297 demand zone, and is trading at 1.3400 above its moving averages near 1.3383 and 1.3360.
The 4H chart shows sterling falling from the 1.3575 to 1.3603 supply zone in early September to a low near 1.3138 on 14 October, where a sharp reversal produced a change of character and a run of higher lows. The pair rallied to 1.3418 on 22 October, pulled back into the 1.3275 to 1.3297 demand zone on 28 October, and then climbed to a high near 1.3433 on Friday, closing at 1.3390.
Price is at 1.3400, holding above both moving averages near 1.3383 and 1.3360, and wicked above the 1.3407 change of character level last week, which keeps the structure bullish while it holds above the 1.3275 demand zone. GBP/USD was the dollar’s weakest-performing major on Friday, helped by a Bank of England expected to raise rates on Thursday.
The Bank of England meets on Thursday at 12:00 UTC with Bank Rate at 3.75 percent. The Committee held 6 to 3 in July and September, with three members voting for a hike, and September CPI rose to 3.5 percent from 3.1 percent. The vote split and guidance matter more than the move, because analysts expect the Bank to push back on market pricing of more than four hikes over the next year. A dovish push-back could pull the pair toward the 1.3275 to 1.3297 demand zone, while a hawkish vote and guidance could send it toward the 1.3470 to 1.3497 supply zone.
Key Events This Week
Monday 2 November ISM Manufacturing and Apple
Euro area, UK and China manufacturing PMIs land early, followed by the US ISM manufacturing survey at 15:00 UTC. Apple reports after the US close, with consensus near 113 billion dollars of revenue and earnings of 1.98 per share, in a week that tests whether AI spending still gets the benefit of the doubt.
Tuesday 3 November US Midterms and RBA
Americans vote in the midterm elections, with Democrats widely expected to take the House and favoured in the Senate by prediction markets, and ING says a Democratic sweep could be slightly negative for the dollar, though markets tend to focus on the fiscal read-across more than the partisan result. The RBA decides at 03:30 UTC and is expected to raise to 4.85 percent, with guidance mattering more than the move, and US JOLTS and AMD earnings follow.
Wednesday 4 November Euro Area Inflation, ADP and ISM Services
Euro area flash October inflation at 10:00 UTC is expected near 4.0 percent from 3.8 percent, followed by US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM services at 15:00 UTC. The Riksbank is priced about 87 percent to hike to 1.75 percent, and markets see a 63 percent chance of an ECB hike in December.
Thursday 5 November Bank of England
The Bank of England decides at 12:00 UTC and is expected to hike 25 basis points to 4.00 percent, with Norges Bank expected to hold at 4.50 percent and the Czech National Bank priced about 84 percent to hike. Fed speakers Hammack and Barkin are scheduled, and Hammack dissented for a hike last week.
Friday 6 November US October Payrolls
US nonfarm payrolls land at 13:30 UTC, forecast at about 55,000 to 65,000 after 29,000 in September, with unemployment near 4.2 percent. With a December hike priced at about 76 to 87 percent, a strong print would likely lock it in and pressure gold further, while a weak print could cut hike odds. Canada’s jobs data lands at the same time, and Logan, Williams and Musalem speak.
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