Last week saw the release of several important global economic data points. In the United States, oil inventories declined more than expected, and the trade deficit improved. However, factory orders contracted, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index declined, and jobless claims rose. On the other hand, the Services PMI showed strong growth. In the Eurozone, the services sector recorded slight growth, while producer prices and retail sales rose more than expected. In the UK, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points amid mixed PMI readings. In Canada, the Ivey PMI rose, while employment declined and the unemployment rate remained stable. In Switzerland, the PMI declined slightly, while annual inflation edged higher. In Australia and Japan, the services sectors showed notable growth despite a decline in household spending in Japan. Meanwhile, China recorded a strong acceleration in both export and import growth.
Market Analysis
GBP/USD (British Pound / US Dollar)
The Bank of England cut interest rates last week by 25 basis points to 4.00%, as widely expected. However, a key surprise was that four out of nine committee members voted to keep rates unchanged, while only one vote was expected. Five members voted in favor of the cut, versus expectations of eight. This points to a clear division within the Monetary Policy Committee, with some hawkish members still opposing rate cuts. This internal disagreement supported the British pound.
The GBP/USD pair reached 1.3459 on Friday, August 8, its highest level since July 25, 2025. The pair has risen by about 2% from its recent low of 1.3141 on August 1 to its current peak, and it’s up nearly 7% year-to-date. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands around 52, indicating positive momentum. Additionally, a bullish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line further supports the likelihood of continued upward momentum for the pair.
Cisco Systems
Cisco Systems stock has gained approximately 21% year-to-date. The market is awaiting the company’s financial results, due Wednesday, August 13, 2025. Analysts expect earnings of $0.98 per share, up from the previous figure of $0.87 per share. Revenues are forecasted at $14.52 billion, compared to $13.60 billion previously. The RSI currently reads 68, signaling strong positive momentum. Additionally, the MACD shows a bullish crossover with the signal line, offering further confirmation of the stock’s upward momentum.
Silver
Silver prices rose by about 3.56% last week, reaching $38.48 on Friday, August 8, its highest level since July 25, 2025. Silver has gained nearly 33% year-to-date, outperforming riskier assets like Bitcoin and global stock indices, including those in the U.S., Europe, China, and Japan. It also outperformed gold, which has risen 29% so far this year.
Silver is benefiting from market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year, along with rising gold prices. The RSI currently stands at 59, indicating that bullish momentum in silver is likely to continue.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 Index rose by 2.43% last week, reaching 6,395 points on Friday, August 8, its highest level since July 31, 2025. This increase is attributed to more than 80% of U.S. corporate earnings beating analyst expectations, as well as expectations of three upcoming Fed rate cuts this year. RSI currently reads 63, pointing to ongoing bullish momentum. The MACD also shows a bullish crossover with the signal line, supporting the positive trend.
Key Economic Events This Week
Markets are closely watching several major economic releases this week:
- Tuesday:
- Interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, with markets expecting a 25-basis point cut from 3.85% to 3.60%.
- UK data: Average earnings including bonuses, and unemployment rate.
- US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
- Wednesday:
- US Crude Oil Inventories.
- Thursday:
- Australia: Employment change and unemployment rate.
- UK: GDP and industrial production.
- Switzerland: Producer Price Index (PPI).
- Eurozone: Employment change, GDP, and industrial production.
- US: Producer Price Index (PPI) and jobless claims.
- Friday:
- China: Industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and unemployment rate.
- Switzerland: GDP.
- US: Retail sales, industrial production, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
