The Most Important Events of the Past Week

By Samir Al Khoury,

United States of America

Federal Reserve Minutes from the July Meeting:

• Fed officials identified several factors supporting a rate cut since July.

• Most officials expressed a readiness to begin easing at the September meeting if the data continues to meet expectations.

• The risks to achieving inflation and employment targets are now roughly balanced.

Highlights from Federal Chairman Jerome Powell’s Speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium:

• It is time to adjust monetary policy.

• The timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, evolving expectations, and the balance of risks.

• Confidence is growing that inflation is on track to meet the Fed’s 2% target.

• There is a clear slowdown in the labour market.

Economic Indicators:

• The initial jobless claims index was 232,000, in line with expectations but higher than the previous reading (228,000).

• Existing home sales rose to 3.95 million, surpassing expectations (3.94 million) and the previous reading (3.90 million).

• Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.0, below expectations (49.5) and the previous reading (49.6).

• Services PMI increased to 55.2, above expectations (54.0) and the previous reading (55.0).

• US crude oil inventories fell by 4.649 million barrels, below expectations (-2.000 million) and the previous reading (1.357 million).

• New home sales rose to 739,000, exceeding expectations (624,000) and the previous reading (668,000).

• Building permits were recorded at 1.406 million, slightly above expectations (1.396 million) but below the previous reading (1.454 million).

Eurozone

• The headline CPI YoY was 2.6%, matching expectations but higher than the previous reading (2.5%). Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also recorded a 2.9% annual increase, in line with expectations and the previous reading.

• The manufacturing PMI fell to 45.6, slightly below expectations (45.7) and the previous reading (45.8).

• Services PMI rose to 53.3, exceeding expectations (51.7) and the previous reading (51.9).

• The consumer confidence index declined to -13.4, below both expectations and the previous reading (-13.0).

United Kingdom

• Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.5, surpassing expectations and the previous reading (52.1).

• Services PMI increased to 53.3, exceeding expectations (52.8) and the previous reading (52.5).

Canada

• Core CPI YoY was 2.5%, in line with expectations but slightly below the previous reading (2.7%).

• Retail sales MoM contracted by 0.3%, in line with expectations but better than the previous reading (-0.8%).

Australia

• Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7, above the previous reading (47.5).

• Services PMI increased to 52.2, higher than the previous reading (50.4).

China

• The People’s Bank of China maintained its 5-year benchmark lending rate at 3.85%, in line with expectations and the previous reading.

Japan

• Exports grew by 10.3%, below expectations (11.4%) but higher than the previous reading (5.4%).

• Imports increased by 16.6%, exceeding expectations (14.9%) and the previous reading (3.2%).

• Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5, slightly below expectations (49.8) but above the previous reading (49.1).

• Services PMI climbed to 54.0, surpassing the previous reading (53.7).

• Headline CPI rose 2.7% YoY, in line with expectations but higher than the previous reading (2.6%). Core CPI, which excludes food, increased by 2.8% YoY, consistent with expectations.

The most important events of this week

This week, financial markets are eagerly awaiting the release of several key economic indicators:

• Monday: The US Durable Goods Orders Index will be released today.

• Tuesday: The US Consumer Confidence Index is scheduled for release.

• Wednesday: The US Crude Oil Inventory report is due.

• Thursday: Markets will focus on the US Pending Home Sales, GDP, and Initial Jobless Claims.

• Friday: The Tokyo Consumer Price Index, Japan’s unemployment rate, industrial production, and retail sales, as well as retail sales in Australia, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index, the US Core PCE Price Index, the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, and the Canadian GDP, will all be released.

 Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD: 

If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.1130, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.1060, 1.0932, and 1.0862. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.1258, 1.1328, and 1.1456.

 GBP/USD: 

The pound against the dollar, if it breaks the pivot point of 1.3118, has the potential to test the support levels of 1.3006, 1.2805, and 1.2693. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.3318, 1.3430, and 1.3631.

USD/JPY: 

If the pivot point of 145.47 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 142.89, 141.46 and 138.88. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 146.89, 149.47, and 150.90.

GOLD: 

If the pivot point of 2541 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 2511, 2477, and 2447. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 2575, 2605, and 2639.

 BRENT CRUDE OIL:

If the pivot point of 80.23 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 78.06, 76.45 and 74.28. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 81.84, 84.01, and 85.62.

US30:

If the pivot point of 41,087 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 40,867, 40,464 and 40,244. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 41,490, 41,710, and 42,113.

Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

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