GBP/USD reached 1.3632 on Friday, June 13, 2025 — its highest level since February 21, 2022. The pair has climbed nearly 13% from its January 13, 2025 low of 1.2100 to this June high of 1.3632. It is currently trading near 1.3400, up around 7% year-to-date.
UK headline CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, above the forecast of 3.3%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) also increased 3.5% year-over-year, in line with expectations. With inflation still well above the Bank of England’s 2% target, interest rates are expected to remain steady in the near term — a positive factor for GBP/USD.
Adding to the bullish momentum is weakness in the U.S. dollar index, now trading near its lowest levels in nearly three years.
Markets are closely watching today’s Bank of England rate decision, due at 3:00 PM UAE time. Expectations are for rates to remain unchanged at 4.25%. Forecasts suggest that 2 out of 9 Monetary Policy Committee members will vote for a rate cut, while 7 members are expected to favor holding rates steady. The voting outcome will be key for sterling’s next move.
Traders are also awaiting remarks from BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, particularly regarding the bank’s forward guidance on interest rates. Currently, markets are pricing in one rate cut later this year.
Technical Outlook:
If the pivot level at 1.3476 (AUD/USD) is broken, the pair could target support levels at 1.3366, 1.3304, and 1.3194. On the other hand, if the pair surpasses this pivot, resistance levels are seen at 1.3538, 1.3648, and 1.3710.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 47, suggesting bearish momentum for GBP/USD.
Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. All trading involves risk.
